Research
Working Papers
The Aggregate Impact of Policy Uncertainty in the Green Energy Transition
Job Market Paper
Federal subsidies for wind and solar are a central instrument of U.S.
electricity-sector decarbonization, yet their availability has historically
been uncertain. I study the macroeconomic and environmental costs of renewable
policy uncertainty in a dynamic spatial general-equilibrium model with
stochastic subsidies and irreversible generation capital. I compute
counterfactual transition paths under a permanent subsidy and a budget-neutral
stochastic subsidy that switches on and off. Relative to the stochastic policy,
the permanent subsidy produces 13% more renewable capacity and reduces cumulative
electricity sector CO2 emissions by 3.2% (2.29 Gt), avoiding $321 billion
in climate damages and generating a present-value welfare gain of
$208 billion. Most of the emissions difference comes from existing coal
and gas plants generating more when renewable investment is delayed during
subsidy lapses. The effects are largest in regions such as the Midwest, where
the subsidy changes whether new renewable capacity is built and existing fossil
plants can fill the generation gap during a lapse.
Paper (PDF)
Spatial Effects of Diesel Taxes: Trade and Externalities
Submitted to the Quarterly Journal of Economics
Freight transported by heavy-duty trucks generates carbon, local pollution,
congestion, accident, and pavement damages along their routes. This paper
quantifies the spatial externalities of trade and the welfare effects of state
and federal diesel taxes. I develop a multi-commodity open-economy trade model
that follows each trade flow through the U.S. highway network, allocating
emissions, damages, and tax revenue to every state and county it crosses.
Using Freight Analysis Framework shipment data and web-scraped diesel prices,
I estimate freight responses to fuel costs and compute counterfactuals.
Increasing the federal diesel tax to its 1993 real value avoids more than
$700 million in damages over 2018–2024, with pavement damage generating
the largest benefit. Most benefits occur in corridor states that freight
passes through, and part of the welfare cost is borne by foreign buyers of
U.S. exports. A unilateral state diesel tax creates large spillovers: when
New Mexico raises its tax to California’s level, national pollution falls,
but freight shifts to alternative corridors, increasing externalities in
neighboring states. These findings highlight the importance of coordinating
state and federal diesel tax policies.
Paper (PDF)
Permits as Real Options: Anticipation and Regulatory Leakage
with Nicholas Vreugdenhil ·
Submitted to the American Economic Review
We identify a new channel for regulatory leakage: the “permitting channel.”
In many settings, permits lock in the regulatory regime at approval, allowing
firms to acquire the option to invest under current rules. Unlike the
conventional Green Paradox response, this channel operates without accelerating
physical investment and pollution. We develop a framework in which firms can
use real options to avoid anticipated regulation. We estimate the framework
using Colorado’s oil and gas reforms, where permits surged before regulation
but drilling did not. Policy-relevant designs that remove the permitting
channel substantially reduce the health risks from pollution despite
amplifying anticipatory investment.
Paper (PDF)
Work in Progress
Environmental Policy, Local Externalities and Development: Evidence from the Amazon
with Wyatt Brooks
The Amazon Rainforest provides substantial environmental benefits but also
occupies land with valuable productive uses. We study the local economic
effects of restricting deforestation when land-intensive agriculture imposes
negative externalities on other economic activity. We develop a model in which
households allocate labor between agriculture and fishing, and deforestation
for agriculture reduces fishing productivity through soil erosion and runoff.
Empirically, we exploit the asymmetric relaxation of environmental enforcement
during the Bolsonaro administration, which affected federal but not state
jurisdictions. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design across
federal-state boundaries, we find that deforestation increased significantly
more within federal reserves. Novel village-level data show that this
deregulation reduced local income. We find that the gains
from agricultural expansion are outweighed by productivity losses in fishing,
implying that deforestation restrictions can generate both environmental and
local economic benefits.
Selected Awards & Fellowships
AEA Summer Fellowship, Washington Center for Equitable Growth
2026
Best Progress Towards Dissertation Award, Arizona State University
2025
Most Deserving Graduate Student in the Program, Arizona State University
2024
Best Oral Presentation Comprehensive Exam, Arizona State University
2024
Best Macroeconomics Qualifying Exam, Arizona State University
2022
